Resilience - In a Post-Coronavirus world
commencing 11.4.20 Day-32 of Ross's self-isolation
War of the Covid-19 Virus
This is the second major World War of my long lifetime.
It is a quite exceptional event and as such, represents a formidable challenge to humanity.
This new war, like all major wars, will lead to world-changing transformational outcomes.
Outcomes that can only be contemplated at this point of time in April 2020!
I will outline some of my ongoing thoughts on the subject as follows:
Wars are triggered by unforseeable Events.
Even though these Events bear elements of scientific predictability!
This particular Event, can be seen as a predictable part of Nature's response to chronic environmental degradation & overpopulation!
And for the doubters, please note that the World's human population has quadrupled in my lifetime from 2 to 8 billion!**
World War 1
As a child, I bore witness to many fundamental consequences of World War 1.
It signaled the start of the decline of the British Empire and the rise of the USA as an economic powerhouse.
Triggered by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, 28th June 1914, this war ended a mere 19 years before my birth.
I clearly recall stories related by those who fought in this war and, who were willing to share memories.
Many survivors remained mentally damaged & silent. They simply wished to forget their terrible experiences.
Recollections were reinforced when I visited a particular street corner in Sarajevo and, battle sites from Verdun to Ypres.
I have read some of the countless names of the fallen carved in memorial stone.
And then reflected on the futility of war as a means of tribal & nationalistic problem-solving.
World War 2
I lived through World War 2 and felt part of the fundamental post-war change and new dynamism, that swept through Britain and Canada in the 1950's and 1960's. It was a brave new world of action, which led to remarkable achievements in infrastructure and construction. Achievements only possible in a world of flexible regulation where responsibility was placed in the hands of teams of newly trained professionals, rather than bureaucratic regulatory enforcers. Speed of decision-making is of the essence when rebuilding!
The first phase of World Wars
Is invariably a display of blundering incompetence and a gross mistiming and mismanagement of likely outcomes.
The wrong people suddenly find themselves in charge of events beyond their level of capability!
It take time for a new wave of Leaders & Generals to take control and restore some level of control.
Outdated Regulations and the flotsam and jetsam of incompetence, created over time by poor governance, are swept aside. A new wave of pragmatic action take over!
Unfortunately, Human Memory is short, so the process repeats itself over time!
I'll list a few of my thoughts on some necessary changes as they come to mind.
Under various headings some of which are listed as follows:
As of 18.4.20, it is obvious that a world disaster of epic proportions is already upon us.This virus is already out of control and, although virus spread can be slowed, it can no longer be stopped. Millions are likely to die as the virus spreads to the underprivileged populations of our world.
My reasoning for stating the above is as follows:
The Sars virus (SARS-CoV-1) outbreak of 2003, infected more than 8,000 and killed 774. It was contained not because of immunity, but through an aggressive program of surveillance, contact tracing and isolation. Subsequently, few countries invested in their health systems in order to plan for an outbreak of a similar virus. Taiwan was one of a few exceptions.
This virus will be with us until mass testing and a vaccine are available to all.
Restrictions will be lifted according to WHO recommendations or sadly, on political whim!
New waves of virus will occur as restrictions are relaxed.
The poor, the densely populated, the uninformed and the uncaring are likely to suffer most.
Older people will be the last to be released from confinement.
Native populations unused to contact with outsiders will likely suffer most.
Neanderthal and Denisovan genomes may offer a degree of protection for Europeans and others, but this speculation on my part has no scientific basis!
The ongoing Covid Crisis - Returning to a New Normality
As of 26.4.20 the Crisis is ongoing with no end to the lock-down in sight. Yet people are becoming uneasy with their circumstances and are looking for guidance as to their future.
My suggestions are as follows:
Belief in politicians is eroded by lack of transparency and self-serving half-truths.
Any relaxation of lock-down should be based on a believable Health Standards led approach.
Regular testing, temperature checks and social distancing are essential elements of virus control.
A National Recovery Council could be formed to issue general guidance.
Sub Committees could be formed for each distinct area of human activity.
A Health Safety Officer to be appointed for each business.